Three Months Out Forecast

Back in March, I wrote that if I was a Republican congressman I would be scared of a Romney nomination. The premise of my argument was that the composition of the electorate in an Obama/Romney election is not likely to be anything like the 2010 electorate. Even those who show up to vote out Obama aren’t going to be movement conservatives and they will either leave the downticket races blank or perhaps split tickets.  You know, throwing the bums out means throwing the bums out.

And what Romney said today about someone still being alive if they had been in Massachusetts where Romneycare was in place probably just boosted the poll numbers for the Libertarian and Constitution party candidates, but in fact will probably just depress conservative turnout even more.

And if those folks don’t show up, senate seats won’t be picked up and House seats will be lost.

As of this writing, the election will be over when the polls close in Ohio and Obama will be reelected comfortably. The Democrats will hold the Senate and they will gain in the House, even if Boehner’s gavel isn’t in jeopardy quite yet—though if Romney stumbles much more, it is.

But Boehner hasn’t even been able to hold his caucus together now. If he needs less than 5 votes to do things, he’s screwed. A deadlocked House after 2 years of gridlock won’t impress people. We’re to the point now where the Senate is acting faster on certain bills.

If Obama is reelected, certain Republicans that were willing to go along with the McConnell strategy of blocking everything are going to wonder if they will ever achieve anything in their short time on Capitol Hill. And when they start wanting to, compromises will work there way back into the system.

For that reason, I think Obama’s 2nd term will look like Clinton’s second term, minus the impeachment, but, unfortunately, minus the economic boom. If the Republicans can’t deal with this president, chances are they will be thrown out in 2014 and Obama will get another chance to pass some legacy-making legislation. But I think the former scenario is more likely.

Just how bad a disaster Romney was should surprise no one. The guy won’t even release his tax returns?

He’ll get a brief bump from the convention and naming his VP, but he’s going to get assraped at the debates. And he’s going to take the party down with him.