The Free Software Foundation has begun a campaign called “BadVista.” That alone doesn’t mean much for the impact Vista will or won’t have. What is amazing is how little original content they need to generate.
Aside from just that bias list, the IT media consensus is definitely: don’t rush to upgrade. That alone means that the death of the Windows OS is very likely. Windows hasn’t needed a killer app to sell itself since version 2.0.
Compound that with the fact that very few people really have any idea exactly what technical advantages Vista has. XP was the first NT-based OS to have reliable game play and development. That meant that you could run it and run everything. Vista doesn’t offer anything except the most incremental improvements in middleware features that open the door to things like better game play.
At least Office 2007 attempts a new UI that is somewhat cool, but mostly not all that impressive. Different, yes. Better, I don’t know.
It will ultimately take a killer app to make most people pony up for the new hardware it will take to run Vista competently.
The potential wedge here is that if that app is a business app that has little home use, like some kind of revolution in Power Point (using a Wii remote??), it may have no traction in the home, where Apple’s iTV might. (I think a desktop OS based cable/media box with internet connectivity will be the next killer app for the home but may not be mutually exclusive with the “computer”)
Microsoft is competent at business applications, but not so great at home stuff… so I see them going in that direction, and ultimately losing control of the home desktop.